May 7, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 4-fight experience advantage (12 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcos Rogerio de Lima for the expected result. Had Maurice Greene pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 035 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 201 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 166 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 226 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima dominated the striking exchanges with 166 vs 60 total strikes, 14 vs 5 significant strikes, 53.8% vs 62.5% accuracy. Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 043 | 824 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -74 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima dominated Maurice Greene on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 14:06 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 095 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this activity level, while Maurice Greene's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Maurice Greene is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 035 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.