August 22, 2015
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Nikita Krylov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Nikita Krylov's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nikita Krylov for the expected result. Had Marcos Rogerio de Lima pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Nikita Krylov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Nikita Krylov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:29 | 2:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 167 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +79 |
Nikita Krylov earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:29, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Nikita Krylov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 105 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Nikita Krylov controlled the striking exchanges with 34 vs 5 total strikes, 21 vs 5 significant strikes, 72.4% vs 50.0% accuracy. Nikita Krylov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Nikita Krylov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -108 | +108 |
Nikita Krylov dominated Marcos Rogerio de Lima on the ground with 1:58 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Nikita Krylov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 246 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 028 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Nikita Krylov demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nikita Krylov capitalized on this activity level, while Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 246-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Nikita Krylov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Nikita Krylov extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcos Rogerio de Lima is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Nikita Krylov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 017 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.