Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Stefan Struve

February 22, 2019

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1057
(-32)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Winner: Stefan Struve
Submission
Round 2 • 2:21

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Marcos Rogerio de Lima-32
Stefan Struve+36
1099
(+36)
Stefan Struve

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -29Stefan Struve: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcos Rogerio de LimaStefan Struve
Total UFC Fights922
Experience Gap-1313
Experience ELO9971 083
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Stefan Struve's 13-fight experience advantage (22 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Marcos Rogerio de Lima pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -21Stefan Struve: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcos Rogerio de LimaStefan Struve
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0161 053
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -40Stefan Struve: +61

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcos Rogerio de LimaStefan Struve
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:212:21
Win Type ELO1 1691 290
ELO Change-40+61
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What Happened

Stefan Struve earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:21, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Marcos Rogerio de Lima was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -32Stefan Struve: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcos Rogerio de LimaStefan Struve
Significant Strikes Landed250
Significant Strikes Attempted323
Total Strikes Landed682
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 1721 042
ELO Change-32+32
💡

What Happened

Marcos Rogerio de Lima controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (68 vs 2 total strikes), significant strike advantage (25 vs 0), superior accuracy (78.1% vs 0.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Marcos Rogerio de Lima lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Stefan Struve's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -75Stefan Struve: +75

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcos Rogerio de LimaStefan Struve
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted01
Ground Control Time5:161:50
Ground Strikes Landed240
Ground ELO979992
ELO Change-75+75
💡

What Happened

Stefan Struve controlled Marcos Rogerio de Lima on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:50 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -16Stefan Struve: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcos Rogerio de LimaStefan Struve
Days Since Last Fight112217
Activity ELO1 0771 194
ELO Change-16+20
💡

What Happened

Stefan Struve demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -20Stefan Struve: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcos Rogerio de LimaStefan Struve
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0301 084
ELO Change-20+22
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What Happened

Stefan Struve started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcos Rogerio de Lima is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -21Stefan Struve: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcos Rogerio de LimaStefan Struve
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0161 050
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.