February 22, 2019
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 997 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Stefan Struve's 13-fight experience advantage (22 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Marcos Rogerio de Lima pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 016 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:21 | 2:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 169 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +61 |
Stefan Struve earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:21, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Marcos Rogerio de Lima was submitted.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 68 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 172 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (68 vs 2 total strikes), significant strike advantage (25 vs 0), superior accuracy (78.1% vs 0.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Marcos Rogerio de Lima lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Stefan Struve's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:16 | 1:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 24 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 979 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Stefan Struve controlled Marcos Rogerio de Lima on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:50 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 077 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Stefan Struve demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Stefan Struve started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcos Rogerio de Lima is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 016 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

