April 28, 2023
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 177 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 13-fight experience advantage (16 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcos Rogerio de Lima for the expected result. Had Waldo Cortes Acosta pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 077 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 378 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 150 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 88 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 355 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
Waldo Cortes Acosta controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (82 vs 59), superior accuracy (54.7% vs 77.6%). However, since Waldo Cortes Acosta lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Marcos Rogerio de Lima's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:01 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 203 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima controlled Waldo Cortes Acosta on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:01 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 1 175 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -12 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this activity level, while Waldo Cortes Acosta's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -16 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Waldo Cortes Acosta is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 077 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

