April 1, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 030 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Marcus Aurelio's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcus Aurelio for the expected result. Had Ryan Roberts pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:16 | 0:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 151 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -34 |
Marcus Aurelio locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:16 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 130 | 884 |
| ELO Change | +116 | -116 |
Marcus Aurelio controlled the striking exchanges with 6 vs 0 significant strikes, 54.5% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marcus Aurelio capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 121 | 901 |
| ELO Change | +99 | -99 |
Marcus Aurelio dominated Ryan Roberts on the ground with 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 137 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 078 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -19 |
Marcus Aurelio demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcus Aurelio capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Roberts's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 026 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Marcus Aurelio extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Roberts is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

