Marcus Aurelio vs Ryan Roberts

April 1, 2008

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1072
(+54)
Marcus Aurelio
Winner: Marcus Aurelio
Submission
Round 1 • 0:16

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Marcus Aurelio+54
Ryan Roberts-45
955
(-45)
Ryan Roberts

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Marcus Aurelio: +32Ryan Roberts: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcus AurelioRyan Roberts
Total UFC Fights31
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 030968
ELO Change+32-32
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What Happened

Marcus Aurelio's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcus Aurelio for the expected result. Had Ryan Roberts pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Marcus Aurelio: +21Ryan Roberts: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcus AurelioRyan Roberts
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 020979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Marcus Aurelio: +80Ryan Roberts: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcus AurelioRyan Roberts
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish0:160:16
Win Type ELO1 151966
ELO Change+80-34
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What Happened

Marcus Aurelio locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:16 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Marcus Aurelio: +116Ryan Roberts: -116

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcus AurelioRyan Roberts
Significant Strikes Landed60
Significant Strikes Attempted111
Total Strikes Landed60
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 130884
ELO Change+116-116
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What Happened

Marcus Aurelio controlled the striking exchanges with 6 vs 0 significant strikes, 54.5% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marcus Aurelio capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Marcus Aurelio: +99Ryan Roberts: -99

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcus AurelioRyan Roberts
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:060:00
Ground Strikes Landed50
Ground ELO1 121901
ELO Change+99-99
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What Happened

Marcus Aurelio dominated Ryan Roberts on the ground with 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Marcus Aurelio: +37Ryan Roberts: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcus AurelioRyan Roberts
Days Since Last Fight137N/A
Activity ELO1 078981
ELO Change+37-19
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What Happened

Marcus Aurelio demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcus Aurelio capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Roberts's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Marcus Aurelio: +25Ryan Roberts: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcus AurelioRyan Roberts
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 026979
ELO Change+25-21
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What Happened

Marcus Aurelio extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Roberts is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Marcus Aurelio: +21Ryan Roberts: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcus AurelioRyan Roberts
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 020979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.