July 4, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 001 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Tyson Griffin's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tyson Griffin for the expected result. Had Marcus Aurelio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 107 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Tyson Griffin earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 92 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 175 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 144 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 072 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Tyson Griffin dominated the striking exchanges with 144 vs 41 total strikes, 92 vs 20 significant strikes, 52.6% vs 25.0% accuracy. Tyson Griffin capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:29 | 6:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 1 038 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Tyson Griffin controlled Marcus Aurelio on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 6:19 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 94 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 061 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +30 |
Tyson Griffin demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tyson Griffin capitalized on this activity level, while Marcus Aurelio's 94-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 008 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +25 |
Tyson Griffin extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcus Aurelio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcus Aurelio | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.