August 27, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 099 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +41 |
Nate Diaz overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Marcus Davis.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:02 | 4:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 253 | 1 349 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +66 |
Nate Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Marcus Davis was submitted.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 52 | 94 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 203 | 328 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 61 | 122 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 173 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Nate Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 122 vs 61 total strikes, 94 vs 52 significant strikes. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 2:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 103 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -99 | +99 |
Nate Diaz controlled Marcus Davis on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:24 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 204 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +37 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Marcus Davis's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +27 |
Nate Diaz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcus Davis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.