October 17, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 163 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Marcus Davis's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcus Davis for the expected result. Had Paul Kelly pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 097 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:16 | 2:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 316 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -17 |
Marcus Davis earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:16, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Paul Kelly was submitted.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 296 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Marcus Davis controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 3 total strikes, 25 vs 3 significant strikes, 39.7% vs 5.4% accuracy. Marcus Davis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:46 | 0:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 295 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -73 |
Marcus Davis dominated Paul Kelly on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:46 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 227 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -11 |
Marcus Davis demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcus Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Kelly's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 150 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -15 |
Marcus Davis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Kelly is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 097 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.