September 7, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 136 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Marcus Davis's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcus Davis for the expected result. Had Paul Taylor pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 081 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:14 | 4:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 267 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -26 |
Marcus Davis earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:14, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 204 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Marcus Davis edged the striking exchanges with 24 vs 16 significant strikes. Marcus Davis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:31 | 1:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 299 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Marcus Davis controlled Paul Taylor on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:31 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 202 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -13 |
Marcus Davis demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Marcus Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Taylor's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -17 |
Marcus Davis continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Paul Taylor's now at 0.
| Metric | Marcus Davis | Paul Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 081 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.