Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix

June 7, 2025

Bantamweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1275
(+12)
Mario Bautista
Winner: Mario Bautista
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Mario Bautista+12
Patchy Mix-10
990
(-10)
Patchy Mix

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +11Patchy Mix: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaPatchy Mix
Total UFC Fights121
Experience Gap11-11
Experience ELO1 289989
ELO Change+11-11
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista's 11-fight experience advantage (12 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mario Bautista for the expected result. Had Patchy Mix pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +13Patchy Mix: -13

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaPatchy Mix
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 162987
ELO Change+13-13
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +10Patchy Mix: -10

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaPatchy Mix
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 363990
ELO Change+10-10
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What Happened

Mario Bautista earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +11Patchy Mix: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaPatchy Mix
Significant Strikes Landed173122
Significant Strikes Attempted302304
Total Strikes Landed173122
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 267989
ELO Change+11-11
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista dominated the striking exchanges with 173 vs 122 total strikes, 173 vs 122 significant strikes, 57.3% vs 40.1% accuracy. Mario Bautista capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +4Patchy Mix: -4

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaPatchy Mix
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted01
Ground Control Time0:000:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 395996
ELO Change+4-4
💡

What Happened

The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +9Patchy Mix: -7

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaPatchy Mix
Days Since Last Fight245N/A
Activity ELO1 281993
ELO Change+9-7
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mario Bautista capitalized on this activity level, while Patchy Mix's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +26Patchy Mix: -8

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaPatchy Mix
Win Streak80
Win Streak ELO1 290992
ELO Change+26-8
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What Happened

Mario Bautista continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Patchy Mix's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +13Patchy Mix: -13

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaPatchy Mix
Weight ClassBantamweightBantamweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 156987
ELO Change+13-13
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.