Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira

February 7, 2026

Bantamweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1285
(+49)
Mario Bautista
Winner: Mario Bautista
Submission
Round 2 • 4:46

C-ELO Evolution

Mario Bautista+49
Vinicius Oliveira-44
1139
(-44)
Vinicius Oliveira

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +27Vinicius Oliveira: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Total UFC Fights145
Experience Gap9-9
Experience ELO1 2791 175
ELO Change+27-27
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista's 9-fight experience advantage (14 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mario Bautista for the expected result. Had Vinicius Oliveira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +18Vinicius Oliveira: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1561 073
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +53Vinicius Oliveira: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:464:46
Win Type ELO1 3721 220
ELO Change+53-34
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What Happened

Mario Bautista earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:46, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Vinicius Oliveira was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +39Vinicius Oliveira: -39

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Significant Strikes Landed1512
Significant Strikes Attempted2721
Total Strikes Landed4918
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2831 217
ELO Change+39-39
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista controlled the striking exchanges with 49 vs 18 total strikes. Mario Bautista capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +179Vinicius Oliveira: -179

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Takedowns Landed50
Takedowns Attempted71
Ground Control Time5:471:39
Ground Strikes Landed90
Ground ELO1 4661 097
ELO Change+179-179
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista dominated Vinicius Oliveira on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 5:47 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +40Vinicius Oliveira: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Days Since Last Fight105203
Activity ELO1 2951 154
ELO Change+40-16
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mario Bautista capitalized on this activity level, while Vinicius Oliveira's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +14Vinicius Oliveira: -13

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 2781 107
ELO Change+14-13
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What Happened

Mario Bautista started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Vinicius Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Mario Bautista: +19Vinicius Oliveira: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Weight ClassBantamweightBantamweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1511 072
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.