March 4, 2022
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Maryna Moroz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Maryna Moroz's 5-fight experience advantage (9 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Maryna Moroz for the expected result. Had Mariya Agapova pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Maryna Moroz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Maryna Moroz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:27 | 3:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 029 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +63 |
Maryna Moroz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:27, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mariya Agapova was submitted.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Maryna Moroz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 72 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 031 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Maryna Moroz edged the striking exchanges with 51 vs 72 total strikes, 28 vs 16 significant strikes. Maryna Moroz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Maryna Moroz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 6:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 19 |
| Ground ELO | 885 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -130 | +130 |
Maryna Moroz dominated Mariya Agapova on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 6:43 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Maryna Moroz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 721 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +17 |
Maryna Moroz demonstrated extended layoff with 721 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Maryna Moroz capitalized on this activity level, while Mariya Agapova's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Maryna Moroz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Maryna Moroz extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mariya Agapova is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Maryna Moroz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.