October 8, 2021
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Sabina Mazo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 062 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -34 |
Mariya Agapova overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Sabina Mazo.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Sabina Mazo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Sabina Mazo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:53 | 0:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 070 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -46 |
Mariya Agapova earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:53, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Sabina Mazo was submitted.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Sabina Mazo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 93 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 164 | 159 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 99 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 064 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -82 |
Mariya Agapova controlled the striking exchanges with 99 vs 63 total strikes, 93 vs 62 significant strikes, 56.7% vs 39.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Mariya Agapova capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Sabina Mazo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 015 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Mariya Agapova edged out Sabina Mazo on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Sabina Mazo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 413 | 224 |
| Activity ELO | 1 020 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -25 |
Mariya Agapova demonstrated extended layoff with 413 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Mariya Agapova capitalized on this activity level, while Sabina Mazo's 224-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Sabina Mazo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -23 |
Mariya Agapova started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sabina Mazo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Sabina Mazo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 017 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.