Mariya Agapova vs Shana Dobson

August 21, 2020

Women's Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

995
(-43)
Mariya Agapova
Winner: Shana Dobson
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 1:38

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Mariya Agapova-43
Shana Dobson+51
971
(+51)
Shana Dobson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Mariya Agapova: -46Shana Dobson: +46

Performance Statistics

MetricMariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Total UFC Fights25
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO1 022945
ELO Change-46+46
💡

What Happened

Shana Dobson's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Shana Dobson for the expected result. Had Mariya Agapova pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Mariya Agapova: -25Shana Dobson: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricMariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO994979
ELO Change-25+25
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Mariya Agapova: -57Shana Dobson: +116

Performance Statistics

MetricMariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:381:38
Win Type ELO1 0011 047
ELO Change-57+116
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What Happened

Shana Dobson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Mariya Agapova: -82Shana Dobson: +82

Performance Statistics

MetricMariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Significant Strikes Landed2224
Significant Strikes Attempted4636
Total Strikes Landed5641
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO982944
ELO Change-82+82
💡

What Happened

Mariya Agapova controlled the striking through superior volume (56 vs 41 total strikes), superior accuracy (47.8% vs 66.7%). However, since Mariya Agapova lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Shana Dobson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Mariya Agapova: -58Shana Dobson: +58

Performance Statistics

MetricMariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Takedowns Landed22
Takedowns Attempted22
Ground Control Time3:112:30
Ground Strikes Landed1015
Ground ELO972905
ELO Change-58+58
💡

What Happened

Shana Dobson edged out Mariya Agapova on the ground with 2 takedowns, 2:30 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Mariya Agapova: -25Shana Dobson: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricMariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Days Since Last Fight70182
Activity ELO997985
ELO Change-25+31
💡

What Happened

Shana Dobson demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Shana Dobson capitalized on this activity level, while Mariya Agapova's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Mariya Agapova: -25Shana Dobson: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricMariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO997983
ELO Change-25+27
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What Happened

Shana Dobson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mariya Agapova is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Mariya Agapova: -25Shana Dobson: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricMariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Weight ClassWomen's FlyweightWomen's Flyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO994979
ELO Change-25+25
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.