August 21, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Shana Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 022 | 945 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Shana Dobson's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Shana Dobson for the expected result. Had Mariya Agapova pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Shana Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 994 | 979 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Shana Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:38 | 1:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 001 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +116 |
Shana Dobson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Shana Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 982 | 944 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Mariya Agapova controlled the striking through superior volume (56 vs 41 total strikes), superior accuracy (47.8% vs 66.7%). However, since Mariya Agapova lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Shana Dobson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Shana Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:11 | 2:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 972 | 905 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Shana Dobson edged out Mariya Agapova on the ground with 2 takedowns, 2:30 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Shana Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 985 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Shana Dobson demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Shana Dobson capitalized on this activity level, while Mariya Agapova's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Shana Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 997 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Shana Dobson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mariya Agapova is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mariya Agapova | Shana Dobson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 994 | 979 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

