June 7, 2025
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mark Choinski | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
MarQuel Mederos's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding MarQuel Mederos for the expected result. Had Mark Choinski pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mark Choinski | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mark Choinski | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 964 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
MarQuel Mederos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Mark Choinski | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 110 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 114 | 165 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 115 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 940 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
MarQuel Mederos dominated the striking exchanges with 115 vs 64 total strikes, 110 vs 58 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 50.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. MarQuel Mederos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mark Choinski | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:39 | 0:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 979 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
MarQuel Mederos landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Mark Choinski | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +56 |
MarQuel Mederos demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, MarQuel Mederos capitalized on this activity level, while Mark Choinski's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mark Choinski | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
MarQuel Mederos extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mark Choinski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mark Choinski | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.