January 16, 2009
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 939 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +47 |
Mauricio Rua overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Mark Coleman.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 097 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:36 | 4:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 224 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +145 |
Mauricio Rua gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 69 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 980 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -202 | +202 |
Mauricio Rua dominated the striking exchanges with 106 vs 71 total strikes, 62 vs 31 significant strikes, 60.8% vs 44.9% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Mauricio Rua capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:10 | 3:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 279 | 973 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Mauricio Rua landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 3 662 | 484 |
| Activity ELO | 1 557 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +37 |
Mauricio Rua demonstrated extended layoff with 484 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Mauricio Rua capitalized on this activity level, while Mark Coleman's 3662-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 076 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +31 |
Mauricio Rua started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mark Coleman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.