January 7, 1999
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +31 |
Pedro Rizzo overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Mark Coleman.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 126 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:00 | 3:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 297 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Pedro Rizzo receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 182 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Mark Coleman controlled the striking through superior volume (58 vs 29 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (25 vs 16). However, since Mark Coleman lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Pedro Rizzo's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 329 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Pedro Rizzo did not secure a significant ground advantage against Mark Coleman on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 1 598 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +122 |
Pedro Rizzo demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Pedro Rizzo capitalized on this activity level, while Mark Coleman's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 104 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +33 |
Pedro Rizzo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mark Coleman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mark Coleman | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.