March 6, 2009
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Matt Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Matt Hamill's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hamill for the expected result. Had Mark Munoz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Matt Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Matt Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:53 | 3:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 984 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +34 |
Matt Hamill earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:53, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Matt Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 47 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 943 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Matt Hamill controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 14 total strikes, 23 vs 14 significant strikes, 48.9% vs 37.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Hamill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Matt Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 0:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 976 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Matt Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +40 |
Matt Hamill demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Matt Hamill capitalized on this activity level, while Mark Munoz's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Matt Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Matt Hamill extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mark Munoz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Matt Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

