February 27, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 092 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +72 |
Roan Carneiro overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Mark Munoz.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:40 | 1:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 241 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +130 |
Roan Carneiro earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:40, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 953 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 1 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 069 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Roan Carneiro edged out Mark Munoz on the ground with 0:53 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | 2 367 |
| Activity ELO | 1 220 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +31 |
Roan Carneiro demonstrated extended layoff with 2367 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Roan Carneiro capitalized on this activity level, while Mark Munoz's 274-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 080 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +31 |
Roan Carneiro started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mark Munoz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mark Munoz | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.