June 2, 2017
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 983 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Raphael Assuncao's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Raphael Assuncao for the expected result. Had Marlon Moraes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 996 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Raphael Assuncao receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 150 | 134 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 993 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Marlon Moraes lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Raphael Assuncao's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 994 | 1 322 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 990 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +19 |
Raphael Assuncao demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Raphael Assuncao capitalized on this activity level, while Marlon Moraes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +12 |
Raphael Assuncao extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marlon Moraes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

