Marlon Moraes vs Raphael Assuncao

June 2, 2017

Bantamweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

990
(-10)
Marlon Moraes
Winner: Raphael Assuncao
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Marlon Moraes-10
Raphael Assuncao+12
1224
(+12)
Raphael Assuncao

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Marlon Moraes: -17Raphael Assuncao: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricMarlon MoraesRaphael Assuncao
Total UFC Fights111
Experience Gap-1010
Experience ELO9831 196
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

Raphael Assuncao's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Raphael Assuncao for the expected result. Had Marlon Moraes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Marlon Moraes: -14Raphael Assuncao: +14

Performance Statistics

MetricMarlon MoraesRaphael Assuncao
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9861 137
ELO Change-14+14
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Marlon Moraes: -4Raphael Assuncao: +4

Performance Statistics

MetricMarlon MoraesRaphael Assuncao
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9961 270
ELO Change-4+4
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Raphael Assuncao receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Marlon Moraes: -7Raphael Assuncao: +7

Performance Statistics

MetricMarlon MoraesRaphael Assuncao
Significant Strikes Landed4443
Significant Strikes Attempted150134
Total Strikes Landed4443
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9931 295
ELO Change-7+7
💡

What Happened

The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Marlon Moraes lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Raphael Assuncao's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Marlon Moraes: -6Raphael Assuncao: +6

Performance Statistics

MetricMarlon MoraesRaphael Assuncao
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted21
Ground Control Time0:000:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO9941 322
ELO Change-6+6
💡

What Happened

The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Marlon Moraes: -10Raphael Assuncao: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMarlon MoraesRaphael Assuncao
Days Since Last FightN/A126
Activity ELO9901 227
ELO Change-10+19
💡

What Happened

Raphael Assuncao demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Raphael Assuncao capitalized on this activity level, while Marlon Moraes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Marlon Moraes: -10Raphael Assuncao: +12

Performance Statistics

MetricMarlon MoraesRaphael Assuncao
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9901 210
ELO Change-10+12
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What Happened

Raphael Assuncao extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marlon Moraes is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Marlon Moraes: -14Raphael Assuncao: +14

Performance Statistics

MetricMarlon MoraesRaphael Assuncao
Weight ClassBantamweightBantamweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9861 131
ELO Change-14+14
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.