February 1, 2019
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 223 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -39 |
Marlon Moraes overcame a 9-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Raphael Assuncao.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 091 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:17 | 3:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 399 | 1 319 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -48 |
Marlon Moraes earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 508 | 1 307 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -86 |
Marlon Moraes controlled the striking exchanges with 10 vs 2 significant strikes, 43.5% vs 16.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marlon Moraes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:15 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 354 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | +165 | -165 |
Marlon Moraes dominated Raphael Assuncao on the ground with 1:15 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 247 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 307 | 1 246 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Marlon Moraes demonstrated standard activity with 247 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marlon Moraes capitalized on this activity level, while Raphael Assuncao's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 131 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -30 |
Marlon Moraes extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Raphael Assuncao is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marlon Moraes | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 090 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.