July 5, 2019
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marlon Vera | Nohelin Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 136 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Marlon Vera's 11-fight experience advantage (12 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marlon Vera for the expected result. Had Nohelin Hernandez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marlon Vera | Nohelin Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 079 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marlon Vera | Nohelin Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:25 | 3:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 287 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -15 |
Marlon Vera earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:25, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Nohelin Hernandez was submitted.
| Metric | Marlon Vera | Nohelin Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 231 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
Nohelin Hernandez controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (22 vs 10), superior accuracy (47.8% vs 37.0%). However, since Nohelin Hernandez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Marlon Vera's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Marlon Vera | Nohelin Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:23 | 2:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 149 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Marlon Vera controlled Nohelin Hernandez on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:23 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marlon Vera | Nohelin Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 193 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -12 |
Marlon Vera demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marlon Vera capitalized on this activity level, while Nohelin Hernandez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marlon Vera | Nohelin Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 111 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -16 |
Marlon Vera extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nohelin Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marlon Vera | Nohelin Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 079 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

