September 24, 2021
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Martin Sano | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Matthew Semelsberger's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matthew Semelsberger for the expected result. Had Martin Sano pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Martin Sano | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Martin Sano | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:15 | 0:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 973 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +97 |
Matthew Semelsberger achieved an EXPLOSIVE KO/TKO finish in just 0:15 of round 1! This lightning-fast destruction earned massive bonus multipliers for the exceptional finish.
| Metric | Martin Sano | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 920 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Matthew Semelsberger controlled the striking exchanges with 60.0% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matthew Semelsberger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Martin Sano | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 962 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Martin Sano | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +49 |
Matthew Semelsberger demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matthew Semelsberger capitalized on this activity level, while Martin Sano's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Martin Sano | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Matthew Semelsberger started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Martin Sano is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Martin Sano | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

