Martin Sano vs Matthew Semelsberger

September 24, 2021

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

969
(-31)
Martin Sano
Winner: Matthew Semelsberger
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 0:15

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Martin Sano-31
Matthew Semelsberger+44
1100
(+44)
Matthew Semelsberger

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Martin Sano: -29Matthew Semelsberger: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricMartin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Total UFC Fights14
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO9711 055
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Matthew Semelsberger's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matthew Semelsberger for the expected result. Had Martin Sano pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Martin Sano: -20Matthew Semelsberger: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMartin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9801 039
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Martin Sano: -27Matthew Semelsberger: +97

Performance Statistics

MetricMartin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish0:150:15
Win Type ELO9731 230
ELO Change-27+97
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What Happened

Matthew Semelsberger achieved an EXPLOSIVE KO/TKO finish in just 0:15 of round 1! This lightning-fast destruction earned massive bonus multipliers for the exceptional finish.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Martin Sano: -80Matthew Semelsberger: +80

Performance Statistics

MetricMartin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Significant Strikes Landed13
Significant Strikes Attempted35
Total Strikes Landed13
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9201 186
ELO Change-80+80
💡

What Happened

Matthew Semelsberger controlled the striking exchanges with 60.0% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matthew Semelsberger capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Martin Sano: -38Matthew Semelsberger: +38

Performance Statistics

MetricMartin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:01
Ground Strikes Landed01
Ground ELO9621 134
ELO Change-38+38
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Martin Sano: -19Matthew Semelsberger: +49

Performance Statistics

MetricMartin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Days Since Last FightN/A98
Activity ELO9811 074
ELO Change-19+49
💡

What Happened

Matthew Semelsberger demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matthew Semelsberger capitalized on this activity level, while Martin Sano's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Martin Sano: -19Matthew Semelsberger: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricMartin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9811 046
ELO Change-19+21
💡

What Happened

Matthew Semelsberger started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Martin Sano is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Martin Sano: -20Matthew Semelsberger: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMartin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9801 039
ELO Change-20+20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.