October 22, 2021
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 254 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Marvin Vettori's 5-fight experience advantage (12 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marvin Vettori for the expected result. Had Paulo Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 123 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 387 | 1 386 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Marvin Vettori earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 190 | 163 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 346 | 260 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 214 | 172 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 339 | 1 386 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Marvin Vettori controlled the striking exchanges with 214 vs 172 total strikes, 190 vs 163 significant strikes. Marvin Vettori capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:27 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 423 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Marvin Vettori edged out Paulo Costa on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:27 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 392 |
| Activity ELO | 1 273 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -18 |
Marvin Vettori demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marvin Vettori capitalized on this activity level, while Paulo Costa's 392-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 180 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Marvin Vettori started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paulo Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 118 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.