September 2, 2022
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 232 | 1 383 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Robert Whittaker's 6-fight experience advantage (19 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Robert Whittaker for the expected result. Had Marvin Vettori pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 107 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 368 | 1 623 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Robert Whittaker earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 74 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 116 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 324 | 1 614 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Robert Whittaker controlled the striking exchanges with 74 vs 38 total strikes, 74 vs 33 significant strikes, 44.6% vs 28.4% accuracy. Robert Whittaker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:28 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 365 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Robert Whittaker controlled Marvin Vettori on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 315 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 259 | 1 419 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Robert Whittaker demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Robert Whittaker capitalized on this activity level, while Marvin Vettori's 315-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 171 | 1 419 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +10 |
Robert Whittaker started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marvin Vettori is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marvin Vettori | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.