January 1, 2016
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 029 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Michael McDonald's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michael McDonald for the expected result. Had Masanori Kanehara pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:09 | 2:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 018 | 1 221 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +41 |
Michael McDonald earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:09, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Masanori Kanehara was submitted.
| Metric | Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 018 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Masanori Kanehara controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (77 vs 6 total strikes), significant strike advantage (15 vs 5), superior accuracy (88.2% vs 38.5%). However, since Masanori Kanehara lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Michael McDonald's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:50 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 999 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Michael McDonald edged out Masanori Kanehara on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 172 | 749 |
| Activity ELO | 995 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +13 |
Michael McDonald demonstrated extended layoff with 749 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Michael McDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Masanori Kanehara's 172-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Michael McDonald started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Masanori Kanehara is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

