Mateus Mendonca vs Nate Maness

October 6, 2023

Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

942
(-32)
Mateus Mendonca
Winner: Nate Maness
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 4:40

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Mateus Mendonca-32
Nate Maness+36
1077
(+36)
Nate Maness

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Mateus Mendonca: -26Nate Maness: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricMateus MendoncaNate Maness
Total UFC Fights26
Experience Gap-44
Experience ELO9521 060
ELO Change-26+26
💡

What Happened

Nate Maness's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Maness for the expected result. Had Mateus Mendonca pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Mateus Mendonca: -19Nate Maness: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMateus MendoncaNate Maness
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9631 036
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Mateus Mendonca: -28Nate Maness: +59

Performance Statistics

MetricMateus MendoncaNate Maness
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:404:40
Win Type ELO9421 154
ELO Change-28+59
💡

What Happened

Nate Maness earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:40, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Mateus Mendonca: -81Nate Maness: +81

Performance Statistics

MetricMateus MendoncaNate Maness
Significant Strikes Landed329
Significant Strikes Attempted735
Total Strikes Landed9103
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO8861 159
ELO Change-81+81
💡

What Happened

Nate Maness dominated the striking exchanges with 103 vs 9 total strikes, 29 vs 3 significant strikes, 82.9% vs 42.9% accuracy. Nate Maness capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Mateus Mendonca: -42Nate Maness: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricMateus MendoncaNate Maness
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted30
Ground Control Time1:141:31
Ground Strikes Landed026
Ground ELO9041 063
ELO Change-42+42
💡

What Happened

Nate Maness controlled Mateus Mendonca on the ground with 1:31 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Mateus Mendonca: -18Nate Maness: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricMateus MendoncaNate Maness
Days Since Last Fight266336
Activity ELO9641 058
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

Nate Maness demonstrated standard activity with 336 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Nate Maness capitalized on this activity level, while Mateus Mendonca's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Mateus Mendonca: -18Nate Maness: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMateus MendoncaNate Maness
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9641 049
ELO Change-18+20
💡

What Happened

Nate Maness started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mateus Mendonca is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Mateus Mendonca: -19Nate Maness: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMateus MendoncaNate Maness
Weight ClassFlyweightFlyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9631 036
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.