October 6, 2023
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mateus Mendonca | Nate Maness |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 952 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Nate Maness's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Maness for the expected result. Had Mateus Mendonca pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mateus Mendonca | Nate Maness |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 963 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mateus Mendonca | Nate Maness |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:40 | 4:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 942 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +59 |
Nate Maness earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:40, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Mateus Mendonca | Nate Maness |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 103 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 886 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -81 | +81 |
Nate Maness dominated the striking exchanges with 103 vs 9 total strikes, 29 vs 3 significant strikes, 82.9% vs 42.9% accuracy. Nate Maness capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mateus Mendonca | Nate Maness |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:14 | 1:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 904 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Nate Maness controlled Mateus Mendonca on the ground with 1:31 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mateus Mendonca | Nate Maness |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 266 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 964 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Nate Maness demonstrated standard activity with 336 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Nate Maness capitalized on this activity level, while Mateus Mendonca's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mateus Mendonca | Nate Maness |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 964 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Nate Maness started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mateus Mendonca is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mateus Mendonca | Nate Maness |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 963 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

