Mateusz Rebecki vs Myktybek Orolbai

October 26, 2024

Catch Weight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1135
(+36)
Mateusz Rebecki
Winner: Mateusz Rebecki
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Mateusz Rebecki+36
Myktybek Orolbai-34
1075
(-34)
Myktybek Orolbai

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Mateusz Rebecki: +37Myktybek Orolbai: -37

Performance Statistics

MetricMateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Total UFC Fights53
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 1111 099
ELO Change+37-37
💡

What Happened

Mateusz Rebecki's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mateusz Rebecki for the expected result. Had Myktybek Orolbai pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Mateusz Rebecki: +21Myktybek Orolbai: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricMateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0631 026
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Mateusz Rebecki: +10Myktybek Orolbai: -10

Performance Statistics

MetricMateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1761 145
ELO Change+10-10
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Mateusz Rebecki receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Mateusz Rebecki: +51Myktybek Orolbai: -51

Performance Statistics

MetricMateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Significant Strikes Landed7161
Significant Strikes Attempted146135
Total Strikes Landed9385
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 1941 065
ELO Change+51-51
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What Happened

Mateusz Rebecki controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 61 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Mateusz Rebecki capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Mateusz Rebecki: +88Myktybek Orolbai: -88

Performance Statistics

MetricMateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Takedowns Landed32
Takedowns Attempted45
Ground Control Time2:242:05
Ground Strikes Landed121
Ground ELO1 2681 157
ELO Change+88-88
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What Happened

Mateusz Rebecki landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Mateusz Rebecki: +35Myktybek Orolbai: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricMateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Days Since Last Fight169176
Activity ELO1 1221 049
ELO Change+35-20
💡

What Happened

Mateusz Rebecki demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mateusz Rebecki capitalized on this activity level, while Myktybek Orolbai's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Mateusz Rebecki: +23Myktybek Orolbai: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricMateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 0811 035
ELO Change+23-21
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What Happened

Mateusz Rebecki started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Myktybek Orolbai is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Mateusz Rebecki: +21Myktybek Orolbai: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricMateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Weight ClassN/AN/A
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0621 026
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.