October 26, 2024
Catch Weight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mateusz Rebecki | Myktybek Orolbai |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 111 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Mateusz Rebecki's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mateusz Rebecki for the expected result. Had Myktybek Orolbai pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mateusz Rebecki | Myktybek Orolbai |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mateusz Rebecki | Myktybek Orolbai |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 176 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Mateusz Rebecki receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Mateusz Rebecki | Myktybek Orolbai |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 71 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 146 | 135 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 93 | 85 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 194 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Mateusz Rebecki controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 61 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Mateusz Rebecki capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mateusz Rebecki | Myktybek Orolbai |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:24 | 2:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 268 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | +88 | -88 |
Mateusz Rebecki landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Mateusz Rebecki | Myktybek Orolbai |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 122 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -20 |
Mateusz Rebecki demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mateusz Rebecki capitalized on this activity level, while Myktybek Orolbai's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mateusz Rebecki | Myktybek Orolbai |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 081 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Mateusz Rebecki started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Myktybek Orolbai is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mateusz Rebecki | Myktybek Orolbai |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

