December 2, 2022
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 196 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -25 |
Matheus Nicolau overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (8 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Schnell.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 113 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:44 | 1:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 260 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -40 |
Matheus Nicolau gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 294 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Matheus Nicolau dominated the striking exchanges with 32 vs 20 significant strikes, 76.2% vs 33.9% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 236 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Matheus Nicolau landed 2 knockdowns followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 252 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 164 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Matheus Nicolau demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Schnell's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 145 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -18 |
Matheus Nicolau extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Schnell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 112 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.