October 8, 2021
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 133 | 942 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -20 |
Matheus Nicolau overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tim Elliott.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 136 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Matheus Nicolau earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 109 | 215 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 128 | 105 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 204 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Matheus Nicolau edged the striking exchanges with 128 vs 105 total strikes, 64 vs 70 significant strikes, 58.7% vs 32.6% accuracy. Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:08 | 2:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 179 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Matheus Nicolau did not secure a significant ground advantage against Tim Elliott on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:08 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 210 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 104 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -23 |
Matheus Nicolau demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Elliott's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Matheus Nicolau extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Elliott is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matheus Nicolau | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 074 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.