May 16, 1996
Open Weight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Andersen | Rafael Carino |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Matt Andersen | Rafael Carino |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Andersen | Rafael Carino |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 5:32 | 5:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +90 |
Rafael Carino earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 5:32, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Matt Andersen | Rafael Carino |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 0 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 884 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -116 | +116 |
Rafael Carino edged the striking exchanges with 33 vs 5 total strikes, 8 vs 0 significant strikes, 47.1% vs 0.0% accuracy. Rafael Carino capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Andersen | Rafael Carino |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Rafael Carino controlled Matt Andersen on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Andersen | Rafael Carino |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Rafael Carino demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Rafael Carino capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Andersen's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Andersen | Rafael Carino |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Rafael Carino started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Andersen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Andersen | Rafael Carino |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.