May 15, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 26 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 24 | -24 |
| Experience ELO | 1 122 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +107 |
Miguel Baeza overcame a 24-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 26 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Brown.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:18 | 0:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 344 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +152 |
Miguel Baeza gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 045 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -157 | +157 |
Miguel Baeza dominated the striking exchanges, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Miguel Baeza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:10 | 0:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 128 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Miguel Baeza landed 2 knockdowns followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 265 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +44 |
Miguel Baeza demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Miguel Baeza capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 153 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +36 |
Miguel Baeza extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.