March 26, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 087 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Ricardo Almeida's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ricardo Almeida for the expected result. Had Matt Brown pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 036 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:30 | 3:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 200 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +81 |
Ricardo Almeida earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:30, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Brown was submitted.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 166 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Ricardo Almeida edged the striking exchanges with 15 vs 6 significant strikes. Ricardo Almeida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 7:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 939 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | -169 | +169 |
Ricardo Almeida dominated Matt Brown on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 7:06 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 1 097 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Ricardo Almeida demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ricardo Almeida capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 050 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +30 |
Ricardo Almeida extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.