July 25, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Brown | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 178 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +47 |
Robbie Lawler overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (13 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Brown.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 110 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 451 | 1 426 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Robbie Lawler earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 242 | 200 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 89 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 476 | 1 437 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Matt Brown lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Robbie Lawler's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 3:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 171 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Robbie Lawler controlled Matt Brown on the ground with 2 takedowns, 3:57 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 1 290 | 1 329 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +73 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 203 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +33 |
Robbie Lawler extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 108 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.