November 14, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ryan Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 073 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ryan Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ryan Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:57 | 0:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 134 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -27 |
Matt Brown earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:57, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Ryan Thomas was submitted.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ryan Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 064 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Ryan Thomas controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (76 vs 20 total strikes). However, since Ryan Thomas lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matt Brown's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ryan Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:45 | 4:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 049 | 841 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Matt Brown controlled Ryan Thomas on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:45 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ryan Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 71 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 060 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -20 |
Matt Brown demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 71 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Thomas's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ryan Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 026 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Matt Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Thomas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Ryan Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.