November 18, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Brown | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 020 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +52 |
Seth Baczynski overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Brown.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 994 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:42 | 0:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 102 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +88 |
Seth Baczynski earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:42, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Brown was submitted.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 125 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Matt Brown controlled the striking through superior accuracy (55.9% vs 34.7%). However, since Matt Brown lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Seth Baczynski's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:56 | 2:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 816 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Seth Baczynski dominated Matt Brown on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:43 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 64 |
| Activity ELO | 1 060 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +78 |
Seth Baczynski demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 64 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Seth Baczynski capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +27 |
Seth Baczynski extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 993 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

