July 10, 2015
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Brown | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 181 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Matt Brown's 10-fight experience advantage (20 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had Tim Means pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 113 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:44 | 4:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 454 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -18 |
Matt Brown earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:44, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 461 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Matt Brown edged the striking exchanges with 25 vs 16 significant strikes, 67.6% vs 40.0% accuracy. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:46 | 0:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 285 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +153 | -153 |
Matt Brown dominated Tim Means on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:46 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 319 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -18 |
Matt Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Means's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 202 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -15 |
Matt Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Means is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Brown | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 109 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

