Matt Brown vs Tim Means

July 10, 2015

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1266
(+41)
Matt Brown
Winner: Matt Brown
Submission
Round 1 • 4:44

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Matt Brown+41
Tim Means-35
1113
(-35)
Tim Means

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Brown: +24Tim Means: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt BrownTim Means
Total UFC Fights2010
Experience Gap10-10
Experience ELO1 1811 049
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown's 10-fight experience advantage (20 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had Tim Means pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Brown: +19Tim Means: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt BrownTim Means
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1131 042
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Brown: +30Tim Means: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt BrownTim Means
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:444:44
Win Type ELO1 4541 181
ELO Change+30-18
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:44, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Brown: +15Tim Means: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt BrownTim Means
Significant Strikes Landed2516
Significant Strikes Attempted3740
Total Strikes Landed2624
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 4611 250
ELO Change+15-15
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown edged the striking exchanges with 25 vs 16 significant strikes, 67.6% vs 40.0% accuracy. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Brown: +153Tim Means: -153

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt BrownTim Means
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted12
Ground Control Time1:460:17
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 2851 061
ELO Change+153-153
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown dominated Tim Means on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:46 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Brown: +46Tim Means: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt BrownTim Means
Days Since Last Fight11984
Activity ELO1 3191 209
ELO Change+46-18
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Means's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Brown: +17Tim Means: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt BrownTim Means
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 2021 070
ELO Change+17-15
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Means is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Brown: +19Tim Means: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt BrownTim Means
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1091 042
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.