January 29, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 915 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Randy Brown overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Dwyer.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 984 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Randy Brown earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 938 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Randy Brown slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Randy Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:52 | 3:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 890 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Randy Brown controlled Matt Dwyer on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:29 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 200 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Randy Brown demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Randy Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Dwyer's 200-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 963 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Randy Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Dwyer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.