February 21, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 006 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -33 |
Matt Dwyer overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran William Macario.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:14 | 3:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 060 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -43 |
Matt Dwyer earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:14, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 20 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 006 | 852 |
| ELO Change | +122 | -122 |
Matt Dwyer controlled the striking exchanges with 13 vs 8 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Dwyer capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 999 | 905 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 142 | 121 |
| Activity ELO | 1 026 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -22 |
Matt Dwyer demonstrated solid activity levels with 142 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Dwyer capitalized on this activity level, while William Macario's 121-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Matt Dwyer started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. William Macario is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Dwyer | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.