November 11, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Frevola | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 026 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Matt Frevola's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Frevola for the expected result. Had Ottman Azaitar pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Frevola | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 031 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Frevola | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 204 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | +136 | -60 |
Matt Frevola earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Matt Frevola | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 274 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +109 | -109 |
Matt Frevola controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Frevola capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Frevola | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 089 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Matt Frevola | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 294 | 792 |
| Activity ELO | 1 062 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Matt Frevola demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Matt Frevola capitalized on this activity level, while Ottman Azaitar's 792-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Frevola | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 045 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -23 |
Matt Frevola extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ottman Azaitar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Frevola | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 031 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

