July 10, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Grice | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 914 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Matt Grice | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Grice | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:36 | 2:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 902 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +51 |
Shannon Gugerty earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:36, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Matt Grice | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 940 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Matt Grice controlled the striking through superior accuracy (50.0% vs 10.0%). However, since Matt Grice lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Shannon Gugerty's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Grice | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:36 | 1:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 905 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -93 | +93 |
Shannon Gugerty dominated Matt Grice on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:13 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Grice | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 964 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Shannon Gugerty demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Shannon Gugerty capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Grice's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Grice | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 961 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Shannon Gugerty started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Grice is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Grice | Shannon Gugerty |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.