March 2, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Rex Holman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 078 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Matt Hamill's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hamill for the expected result. Had Rex Holman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Rex Holman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Rex Holman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:00 | 4:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 181 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -28 |
Matt Hamill earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:00, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Rex Holman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 171 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Matt Hamill controlled the striking exchanges with 45 vs 15 total strikes, 29 vs 11 significant strikes, 59.2% vs 34.4% accuracy. Matt Hamill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Rex Holman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:57 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 179 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Matt Hamill controlled Rex Holman on the ground with 0:57 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Rex Holman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 145 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 104 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -17 |
Matt Hamill demonstrated solid activity levels with 145 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hamill capitalized on this activity level, while Rex Holman's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Rex Holman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Matt Hamill extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rex Holman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Rex Holman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.