September 21, 2012
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 170 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Matt Hamill's 13-fight experience advantage (14 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hamill for the expected result. Had Roger Hollett pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 114 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 267 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Matt Hamill earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 94 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 144 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 151 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 134 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Matt Hamill dominated the striking exchanges with 151 vs 32 total strikes, 94 vs 26 significant strikes, 65.3% vs 36.1% accuracy. Matt Hamill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 70 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 289 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Matt Hamill dominated Roger Hollett on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 6:02 of control time, 70 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 413 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 223 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -9 |
Matt Hamill demonstrated extended layoff with 413 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matt Hamill capitalized on this activity level, while Roger Hollett's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 150 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -13 |
Matt Hamill started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roger Hollett is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.