April 1, 2008
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 090 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Matt Hamill's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hamill for the expected result. Had Tim Boetsch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:25 | 1:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 238 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -33 |
Matt Hamill gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 209 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Matt Hamill controlled the striking exchanges with 53 vs 23 total strikes, 31 vs 18 significant strikes, 43.7% vs 31.0% accuracy. Matt Hamill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:37 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 202 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Matt Hamill controlled Tim Boetsch on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:37 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 207 | 60 |
| Activity ELO | 1 104 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Matt Hamill demonstrated standard activity with 207 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hamill capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Boetsch's 60-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Matt Hamill started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Boetsch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Hamill | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.