March 31, 2009
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Horwich | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 942 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Ricardo Almeida's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ricardo Almeida for the expected result. Had Matt Horwich pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Horwich | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Horwich | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 941 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Ricardo Almeida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Matt Horwich | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 928 | 976 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Ricardo Almeida controlled the striking exchanges with 79 vs 52 total strikes, 41 vs 25 significant strikes. Ricardo Almeida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Horwich | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:04 | 8:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 830 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -96 | +96 |
Ricardo Almeida dominated Matt Horwich on the ground with 9 vs 0 takedowns, 8:21 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Horwich | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 158 | 270 |
| Activity ELO | 961 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Ricardo Almeida demonstrated standard activity with 270 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Ricardo Almeida capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Horwich's 158-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Horwich | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Ricardo Almeida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Horwich is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Horwich | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.