May 22, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 198 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Matt Hughes's 9-fight experience advantage (21 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Matt Serra pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 287 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 409 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Matt Hughes earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 235 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Matt Hughes controlled the striking exchanges with 79 vs 36 total strikes, 34 vs 14 significant strikes, 58.6% vs 34.1% accuracy. Matt Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:15 | 0:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 338 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Matt Hughes controlled Matt Serra on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 8:15 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 350 | 399 |
| Activity ELO | 1 292 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Serra's 399-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 234 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -12 |
Matt Hughes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Serra is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 149 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.