April 9, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Renzo Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 21 | -21 |
| Experience ELO | 1 213 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Matt Hughes's 21-fight experience advantage (22 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Renzo Gracie pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Renzo Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 294 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Renzo Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:40 | 4:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 424 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -7 |
Matt Hughes gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Renzo Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 123 | 109 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 291 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Matt Hughes dominated the striking exchanges with 71 vs 34 total strikes, 70 vs 34 significant strikes, 56.9% vs 31.2% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Matt Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Renzo Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:44 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 352 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Matt Hughes landed 2 knockdowns followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Renzo Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 322 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 299 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated standard activity with 322 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Renzo Gracie's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Renzo Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 244 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -9 |
Matt Hughes extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Renzo Gracie is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Renzo Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 162 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.