August 6, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 232 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Matt Hughes's 14-fight experience advantage (23 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Ricardo Almeida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 302 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:15 | 3:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 461 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -22 |
Matt Hughes earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 313 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Ricardo Almeida controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (10 vs 2), superior accuracy (35.7% vs 12.5%). However, since Ricardo Almeida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matt Hughes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 392 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 325 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -10 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Ricardo Almeida's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 259 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -11 |
Matt Hughes extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ricardo Almeida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Ricardo Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 176 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.