May 26, 2006
Catch Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 255 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Matt Hughes's 2-fight experience advantage (15 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Royce Gracie pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 335 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:39 | 4:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 506 | 1 434 |
| ELO Change | +115 | -53 |
Matt Hughes earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 440 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -92 |
Matt Hughes controlled the striking exchanges with 32 vs 7 significant strikes, 80.0% vs 63.6% accuracy. Matt Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:26 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 28 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 486 | 1 336 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Matt Hughes controlled Royce Gracie on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:26 of control time, 28 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 4 069 |
| Activity ELO | 1 306 | 1 681 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -39 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Royce Gracie's 4069-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 271 | 1 323 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -29 |
Matt Hughes continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Royce Gracie's now at 0.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 185 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.