June 6, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 176 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +61 |
Thiago Alves overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Hughes.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 276 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:02 | 1:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 387 | 1 457 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +108 |
Thiago Alves gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 186 | 1 424 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Thiago Alves controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:03 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 267 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Thiago Alves landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 66 |
| Activity ELO | 1 280 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +68 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 66 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Hughes's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 221 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +65 |
Thiago Alves continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Matt Hughes's now at 0.
| Metric | Matt Hughes | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 134 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.